EVENT 201 PANDEMIC DRILL: BILL GATES FOUNDATION [2019]

EVENT 201 MODEL Disclaimer: this model was used exclusively for the exercise in October 2019 and does not relate to and cannot be applied to the current 2019-nCoV outbreaks because the epidemiologic inputs in this model differ from what is observed in... More

EVENT 201 MODEL Disclaimer: this model was used exclusively for the exercise in October 2019 and does not relate to and cannot be applied to the current 2019-nCoV outbreaks because the epidemiologic inputs in this model differ from what is observed in 2019-nCoV. Prepared by Caitlin Rivers Date: October 11, 2019 The Event 201 model simulates an outbreak of a moderately transmissible pathogen in a fully susceptible population. The model is intended to be a realistic representation of how a novel infectious disease could become a pandemic in the absence of adequate control measures. Model Description We used an ordinary differential equation approach to simulate the Event 201 pandemic. A graphical depiction of the model structure and a table of the key parameters are available in the Appendix. The model contains six compartments representing different stages of infection. Key features of the model include two compartments for individuals infectious in the community: half develop mild illn Less