Major Equity Markets 2010: Fisher Capital Management Part 2
The euro-zone economy improved much faster than expected in the
second quarter of the year.
Growth is estimated to have been around
the 1% level, the fastest quarterly level for three years; and this has
eased the fears about a move into a “double-dip” recession, at least...
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Major Equity Markets 2010: Fisher Capital Management Part 2 The euro-zone economy improved much faster than expected in the second quarter of the year. Growth is estimated to have been around the 1% level, the fastest quarterly level for three years; and this has eased the fears about a move into a “double-dip” recession, at least for the moment. But it is a two-speed recovery, with the German economy estimated to have grown by 2. 2% during the quarter, the Netherlands economy by 0. 9%, and the French economy by 0. 6%, but with Spain and Portugal basically unchanged and the Greek economy falling further into recession. With domestic demand weak, it is therefore essential that overseas demand remains buoyant if German exports are going to continue to drive the overall economy forward; but this is now very uncertain, and so growth projections for the rest of this year and for 2011 are still fairly cautious. However the European Central Bank is maintaining its optimistic view of prosp
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Major Equity Markets 2010: Fisher Capital Management Part 1
Sentiment in the equity markets has been steady over the past month.
Markets in Europe have been unable to resist downward pressure.
The
Japanese market is also lower; but there has been resistance amongst
the emerging markets in South East Asia that are supported by more...
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Major Equity Markets 2010: Fisher Capital Management Part 1 Sentiment in the equity markets has been steady over the past month. Markets in Europe have been unable to resist downward pressure. The Japanese market is also lower; but there has been resistance amongst the emerging markets in South East Asia that are supported by more favourable economic conditions. The Chinese authorities are obviously determined to prevent their economy from overheating. The global recovery will therefore only proceed at a very slow pace, and there may well be setbacks along the way, although a move into a “double-dip” recession still seems unlikely. There is also an increased danger of a sovereign debt default by Greece, and possibly even by Ireland. But the swing in sentiment should not go too far. So long as monetary policy remains supportive, the global economic recovery is likely to continue, and this will eventually produce a sustainable improvement in equity prices. Patience will therefore
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World Trade 2010: Fisher Capital Management
One of the more encouraging developments has been the rapid recovery
in the level of world trade.
The recession in 2009 had a dramatic effect,
and the volume of world exports dropped by around 12%.
But largely because large parts of the global economy, and especially
China and other...
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World Trade 2010: Fisher Capital Management One of the more encouraging developments has been the rapid recovery in the level of world trade. The recession in 2009 had a dramatic effect, and the volume of world exports dropped by around 12%. But largely because large parts of the global economy, and especially China and other countries in South East Asia, were relatively unaffected by the recession, the rebound in trading volumes had been very impressive. There is already talk of reviving the Doha round of trade liberalisation talks that collapsed in 2008. However it will be necessary for relations between the US and China to improve substantially before any real progress can be made, and present disagreements suggest that progress will only be possible at a very slow pace, even if the global economic recovery remains on track. Major Equity Markets Sentiment in the equity markets has been steady over the past month. Markets in Europe have been unable to resist downward pressure.
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Fisher Capital Management News: Equity Markets
Equity Markets: All the major equity markets, and most of the emerging
markets, Are stable over the past month.
There had been expectations
that the Fed might introduce further quantitative easing measures at
its recent OMC meeting, and this provided some support for the markets
in the...
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Fisher Capital Management News: Equity Markets Equity Markets: All the major equity markets, and most of the emerging markets, Are stable over the past month. There had been expectations that the Fed might introduce further quantitative easing measures at its recent OMC meeting, and this provided some support for the markets in the early part of the month; but it made only very modest. Government Bond Markets: The major government bond markets have made further significant gains over the past month, despite the funding pressures resulting form huge fiscal deficits, and the renewed concerns about debt defaults. Short-term interest rates have remained low, and monetary policy has been supportive; but it has been the enhanced “safe haven” status of these markets that has provided most of the momentum, as investors have sought “shelter from the current storm”. However the moves have surprised most commentators, and this has led to warnings about “bond bubbles” that will not be sustaine
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Fisher Capital Management News: Commodity Markets 2010
The performance of the commodity markets remains very impressive.
Speculative activity is a major factor, and supply shortages, often the
result of adverse weather conditions, are also providing considerable
support; but there is clearly a view amongst both traders and investors...
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Fisher Capital Management News: Commodity Markets 2010 The performance of the commodity markets remains very impressive. Speculative activity is a major factor, and supply shortages, often the result of adverse weather conditions, are also providing considerable support; but there is clearly a view amongst both traders and investors that the general level of prices is too low, and that they will move higher. Over the longer-term that view is likely to prove to be justified. Commodity markets have been extremely volatile over the past month, rising strongly in the early part of the period, but falling back sharply towards month-end concerns about the effects of the austerity measures being introduced in Europe, and indications of a continuing slowdown in China, have combined to increase fears but for most of the past month traders and investors apparently decided that the gloom was overdone; and commodity prices also benefited from some “safe haven” buying by investment funds. Base
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Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2 - The UK Emergency Budget
Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2- The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much
worse.
The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in
£13 billion.
On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing
public sector pay, indexing...
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Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2 - The UK Emergency Budget Fisher Capital Management Report Part 2- The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much worse. The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in £13 billion. On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing public sector pay, indexing state benefits to the CPI rather than the faster-rising RPI and freezing child benefits. State pensions will be indexed to the higher of wages or the CPI but the pension age will be raised to 66 fairly soon. Interest rates are projected to remain low, with inflation absent; and it is possible that Quantitative Easing will need to be resumed but on present prospects this seems unlikely to be necessary. Another concern is with the regulative proposals. There is an antibank mentality developing in this coalition government, which is most unfortunate; much of it seems to emanate from Vince Cable and the Lib Dems. Yet a moment’s thought should be enough to
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Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 1
Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) historic
lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly
frittered away a chest brimming with political...
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Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 1 Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) historic lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly frittered away a chest brimming with political capital. Major newspapers said that Hatoyama was resigning mainly for two reasons: his failure to keep his promise to relocate the functions of US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Okinawa, out of Okinawa Prefecture, and a political funding scandal that included his mother’s provision of some ¥1. 26 billion to him over years. Following Hatoyama’s resignation, Minister of Finance Naoto Kan was elected as the new Prime Minister, the fifth in four years. At his inaugural press conference Kan proposed a comprehensive reconstruction of the economy, public finance, and social security as his priority, in addition to reforming public administration, and conducting res
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Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2
Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) historic
lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly
frittered away a chest brimming with political...
More
Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2 Fisher Capital Management Eight and a half months after riding the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) historic lower house victory into office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, having haphazardly frittered away a chest brimming with political capital. Major newspapers said that Hatoyama was resigning mainly for two reasons: his failure to keep his promise to relocate the functions of US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, Okinawa, out of Okinawa Prefecture, and a political funding scandal that included his mother’s provision of some ¥1. 26 billion to him over years. Fisher Capital Management - Japan Elects a New Premier Part 2: Instead of deregulation and lower corporate taxes, he envisions increased employment and consumption through focused government spending in nursing, medicine and other social welfare fields. But some economists expressed doubts; they say there is no guarantee that the positive
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From Fisher Capital...
The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report Part 1
Fisher Capital Management Report - The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much
worse.
The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in
£13 billion.
On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing
public sector pay, indexing state...
More
The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report Part 1 Fisher Capital Management Report - The UK has had an emergency budget and it could have been much worse. The heavy lifting is being done by a rise in VAT bringing in £13 billion. On the spending side the cuts are achieved by freezing public sector pay, indexing state benefits to the CPI rather than the faster-rising RPI and freezing child benefits. State pensions will be indexed to the higher of wages or the CPI but the pension age will be raised to 66 fairly soon. The disappointment for the UK is on the tax side where compromises with the worst aspects of the Lib Dems are apparent. CGT goes up to 28% for top earners … a mistake. The UK Emergency Budget - Fisher Capital Management Report: The 50% top tax rate and associated rise in the top marginal rate on pensions have been left alone. There is a Bank Levy bringing in £2 billion … defensible, just, at this level but it needs remembering that taxpayers generally m
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Fisher Capital Management- Financial Market August 2010
Fisher Capital Management- Financial Markets: Sentiment in the financial markets has improved
over the past month.
The global economic recovery is continuing,
so far there have been no sovereign debt defaults, and there has
been a modest recovery in the euro.
Investors and...
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Fisher Capital Management- Financial Market August 2010 Fisher Capital Management- Financial Markets: Sentiment in the financial markets has improved over the past month. The global economic recovery is continuing, so far there have been no sovereign debt defaults, and there has been a modest recovery in the euro. Investors and traders therefore appear to have concluded that the gloom was overdone. But there has been evidence of a worsening situation in Spain, and the decision by the Chinese authorities to adopt a “more flexible” towards renminbi has also raised some concerns about the growth prospects for the Chinese economy. Fisher Capital Management- Equity Markets: All the major equity markets, and the emerging markets, have improved over the past month. Wall Street has outperformed markets elsewhere because of some welcome economic data; there have been strong gains in most of the mainland European markets as the sovereign debt crisis has appeared to ease; the UK market has w
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China: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 Fisher Capital Management Korea
Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea - April is going to set the tone for the world economy
depending on how China is labeled by the US and China’s reaction to it.
Our gut feeling is that
apart from the rhetoric — which is in the air with respect to the...
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China: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 Fisher Capital Management Korea Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea - April is going to set the tone for the world economy depending on how China is labeled by the US and China’s reaction to it. Our gut feeling is that apart from the rhetoric — which is in the air with respect to the Yuan-dollar rates, China’s current account surplus and internet independence — neither of them will rock the boat. Already five prominent members of the G20 — South Korea, Canada, France, the US and the UK — have sent a coded warning to China against reneging on economic agreements. Perception of China and the US in international relations is far apart. According to China, the main issues are Taiwan and the sale of arms to Tibet and for the US the issues are the Yuan-dollar rate, trade surplus and Internet freedom. China: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea - Under the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988, the U. S.
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South Korea: Market Overview 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul
South Korea: Fisher Capital Management Seoul - The South Korean economy is expected to
grow by 4–5% in 2010.
The government’s efforts were seriously questioned when it clipped the
independence of the central bank when the government sent its observers to the central...
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South Korea: Market Overview 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul South Korea: Fisher Capital Management Seoul - The South Korean economy is expected to grow by 4–5% in 2010. The government’s efforts were seriously questioned when it clipped the independence of the central bank when the government sent its observers to the central bank’s policy meetings. However, the central bank will start raising interest rates in the third quarter to prevent inflation and asset bubbles. For the time being inflation is stable. It fell from 3. 1% in January to 2. 7% in February, but inflation will accelerate in the second half due to higher oil prices and rising imports. This should see policy interest rates to go up by 25 basis points in the third quarter and another 25 basis points in December. South Korea: Market Overview 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul - The government appointed Mr. Kim, who has served as a presidential economic secretary and is currently South Korea’s ambassador to th
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Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter
Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea, Brazil’s Economy - The brief recession of 2009 has
given way to a robust increase in consumer demand and recovery in investment in Brazil in
2010.
The economy is likely to grow 5.
5% this year.
GDP grew 2% year-on-year in...
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Fisher Capital Management South Korea, Brazil’s Economy: 1st Quarter Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea, Brazil’s Economy - The brief recession of 2009 has given way to a robust increase in consumer demand and recovery in investment in Brazil in 2010. The economy is likely to grow 5. 5% this year. GDP grew 2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2009 and fell 0. 2% for the whole of 2009 compared with 2008. Fisher Capital Management South Korea Investing: - The central bank did not raise its target overnight interest rate, the so-called Selic rate, unchanged leaving it at 8. 75% a year. This was expected as the presidential election is nearing. The rate fell from 13. 75% to 8. 75% between December 2008 and July 2009. By the year-end, the rate is expected to rise by 250 basis points to curb inflation. Even though the US and Brazil are not as open an economy as one would believe. Trade accounts for approximately 14% for both the countries. US cotton subsidies had been a bone
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Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul
Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul - Conditions in
the government bond markets have remained very difficult over the past month, and there have
been further falls in some of the minor markets, especially in the euro-zone, because...
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Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Fisher Capital Management Seoul - Conditions in the government bond markets have remained very difficult over the past month, and there have been further falls in some of the minor markets, especially in the euro-zone, because of continuing fears about sovereign debt defaults. The agreement reached by the member countries of the euro-zone to combine with the IMF to provide any necessary support to enable Greece to refinance its maturing debts and avoid a default has had a poor response in the markets; but at least Greece has been able to make further bond issues; and the gilt edged market has coped fairly well so far with a disappointing Budget statement that has left any real attempt to resolve the serious UK debt problems until after the general election. But the sudden weakness in the world bond markets after a series of disappointing auctions has once again increased the
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Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part2
Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part 2 - Our
position remains unchanged; any existing exposure to bonds should be further reduced in favor
of US & Euro equities.
The European Central Bank appears to share this view, although it...
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Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part2 Fisher Capital Management: Government Bond Markets Global Outlook Part 2 - Our position remains unchanged; any existing exposure to bonds should be further reduced in favor of US & Euro equities. The European Central Bank appears to share this view, although it has warned that the recovery “is likely to remain uneven”, and has kept short-term rates at very low levels. The bond markets have therefore continued to receive considerable support from the economic background and the actions of the central bank. Fisher Capital Management Seoul, South Korea: However, these factors have been much less important than the fears about the debt problems in Greece and in other weaker members of the euro-zone. After considerable prevarication, due primarily to strong German opposition to a bailout; an agreement has been reached amongst the member countries that, in conjunction with the IMF, they will provide support for Greec
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Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010
Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 - India is in a
sweet spot.
The central government budget which set the tone for reducing fiscal deficit and an
unexpected increase in the policy rate to rein in inflation has convinced the...
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Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea: Market Overview 1st Quarter 2010 - India is in a sweet spot. The central government budget which set the tone for reducing fiscal deficit and an unexpected increase in the policy rate to rein in inflation has convinced the markets and economists that India is on its way to having a robust economic growth. Industrial output also continued to grow at a fast pace in January as companies produced more cars and cement. In the fiscal year 2011 that ends in March 2011, GDP growth of 8. 5% is achievable. Long-term predictions for the southwest monsoons are expected to be normal, giving a boost to agricultural production and domestic demand. Fisher Capital Management Seoul Korea- Inflation in India has been surging, driven by a low base and high food prices as the weakest monsoon rains in 37 years last year hurt farm output. Inflation running at 8. 5% may have peaked and it is ex
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Market Overview December 2009: Fisher Capital Management
Market Overview December 2009: Fisher Capital Management - Stocks closed lower in October
for the first time in seven months, as investors questioned whether the huge rally off the March
lows had exceeded the economy’s ability to generate growth in output and profits.
Indeed,...
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Market Overview December 2009: Fisher Capital Management Market Overview December 2009: Fisher Capital Management - Stocks closed lower in October for the first time in seven months, as investors questioned whether the huge rally off the March lows had exceeded the economy’s ability to generate growth in output and profits. Indeed, equities capped off a volatile month (the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced triple-digit moves in ten trading sessions!) with a volatile week, as the S&P 500 Index experienced its worst five-day span since early July. For the month, the DJIA eked out a fractional gain, while all the other major equity market indices suffered losses. Small cap stocks, which had been among the performance leaders of the seven-month rally, experienced the worst hit, with the Russell 2000® Index falling by almost 7%. In another sign that the market may be growing skeptical of the “higher risk, higher reward” strategy, the NASDAQ Composite Index, dominated by te
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Fisher Capital Management: Market Performance – US Economy
Fisher Capital Management Report, Part 1 - Output growth exceeded what were once
considered lofty expectations during the third quarter, as real GDP (inflation adjusted Gross
Domestic Product) rose by a 3.
5% annual pace from the previous quarter.
To be sure, this was
the...
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Fisher Capital Management: Market Performance – US Economy Fisher Capital Management Report, Part 1 - Output growth exceeded what were once considered lofty expectations during the third quarter, as real GDP (inflation adjusted Gross Domestic Product) rose by a 3. 5% annual pace from the previous quarter. To be sure, this was the first gain in economic activity after four consecutive quarterly declines in GDP. While technically this indicates an end to the recession, we point out that on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, economic activity has still declined 2. 3%, yet it represents an improvement from the -3. 8% YOY in the second quarter, the worst annual drop in seven decades. The components of GDP were led by growth in personal consumption, which increased 3. 4% as stimulus programs such as “Cash for Clunkers” allowed consumer spending to increase by the largest amount in two years. Home construction surged at an annual rate of 23%, spurred on by the $8,000 tax credit for first-time
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From Fisher Capital...
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